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Sports Betting Stocks to Watch During Playoffs: Who Wins from Increased Wagering?

iinvestments

2026-02-02

12 min read

Which public stocks win from NFL/NBA playoff wagering spikes? Models show operators, payment rails and ad platforms that gain real incremental revenue.

Playoff Betting Surge: Where the Real 2026 Short-Term Market Moves Live

Too much noise, not enough signals. For investors, playoffs are a compressed stress test: handle spikes, user acquisition costs change, margins swing and ad budgets surge. This article cuts through the commentary to identify the publicly traded sportsbooks, payment processors, and advertising partners most likely to benefit from the NFL and NBA playoff waves in early 2026 — and models plausible revenue-impact scenarios you can use to size trades or portfolio allocations.

Executive summary — the headlines you need now

Primary beneficiaries: DraftKings (DKNG), Flutter/FanDuel (FLTR / market proxies), MGM Resorts (MGM) via BetMGM, Caesars (CZR), Penn Entertainment (PENN), and smaller niche operators such as Rush Street Interactive (RSI).
Payment winners: Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), PayPal (PYPL), Block (SQ), Nuvei (NVEI) and Global Payments (GPN) see incremental volume and cross-border flows.
Ad and media beneficiaries: Disney/ESPN (DIS), Fox Corporation (FOXA), Alphabet/YouTube (GOOGL), Meta (META), The Trade Desk (TTD) and streaming platforms such as Roku (ROKU).
Short-term catalysts: playoff scheduling, in-game betting acceleration, promotional intensity, and regulatory approvals in late 2025–early 2026.
Watch KPIs: handle, hold, active users (DAU/MAU), net revenue per user (NRPU), CPA, churn, payment chargeback rates and ad CPMs.

Why playoffs matter — more than just a few big weekends

Historically, the NFL playoffs and NBA postseason concentrate wagering activity into a short window. That produces three distinct benefits for the ecosystem:

Volume spike: handle (total money wagered) can rise 20–50% vs. a typical weekend, depending on matchups and market depth.
Higher-frequency in-play bets: in-game betting — higher margin and higher engagement — increases as viewers watch single games more intensely.
Ad spend reallocation: sportsbooks increase acquisition and branding spending tied to playoff viewership, pushing dollars to large sports media and programmatic channels.

Which stocks are positioned to win — and why

Publicly traded sportsbooks and operators

DraftKings (DKNG) — scale + product innovation. DraftKings is the U.S.-focused market leader in digital sportsbook volume. It benefits from scale in user acquisition and product features that monetize in-game betting. Watch its promotional cadence and hold percentage.
Flutter (FanDuel) — leading market share via FanDuel in the U.S. (Flutter is listed in London; U.S. investors often access exposure via ADRs or local proxies). FanDuel’s deep sportsbook liquidity and DFS cross-sell make it a primary candidate for handling outsized playoff flows.
MGM Resorts (MGM) / BetMGM — omnichannel reach. MGM combines retail and digital which can lift cross-sell and higher-value retail customer spend during marquee events like the Super Bowl or NBA Finals.
Caesars (CZR) — brand + retail footprint. Caesars’ loyalty program and retail casino network create durable monetization during events when in-person viewing overlaps with wagering.
Penn Entertainment (PENN) — Barstool & regional scale. Penn’s content partnerships and local distribution can capture spikes in regional interest, especially when local teams are playing.
Rush Street Interactive (RSI) and PointsBet (OTC) — niche/mobile-first players. If matchups tilt towards markets where these brands are strong, they can see disproportionate spikes in customer acquisition and retention.

Payment processors that collect the wins

Sportsbooks are volume businesses, but payment processors monetize the increased flow through take-rates and ancillary services (fast payouts, fraud prevention, KYC). When handle spikes, processors capture incremental, high-frequency transaction revenue.

Visa (V) & Mastercard (MA) — the card rails capture the bulk of debit/credit volume; higher handle means more interchange revenue even after refunds/chargebacks.
PayPal (PYPL) & Block (SQ) — digital wallets and instant payout options grow in prominence as users demand faster deposits/withdrawals. Instant payout rails and wallet partners earn higher take-rates and ancillary fees.
Nuvei (NVEI) & Global Payments (GPN) — payment-acquirer exposure, localized payment methods in multi-state/mobile markets and cross-border flows for international bettors.

Ad, media and tech partners that capture sportsbook marketing spend

Sportsbooks spend heavily on both brand and performance marketing around playoffs. That flow benefits large media platforms and programmatic ad stacks.

Disney/ESPN (DIS) and Fox (FOXA) — TV rights and sports networks get a direct lift in ad inventory value and CPMs when sportsbooks buy TV slots tied to playoff broadcasts.
Alphabet (GOOGL) & Meta (META) — search and social acquisition channels see demand-driven bid inflation and higher ad revenue from sportsbook account sign-ups.
The Trade Desk (TTD) & Roku (ROKU) — programmatic and streaming ad platforms benefit as bookmakers reallocate budgets toward CTV and targeted OTT ads.

Modeling revenue-impact scenarios: build your own quick model

Below are transparent, repeatable scenario templates you can use to estimate how much an operator or partner might benefit from a playoff surge. Substitute company-specific baseline numbers and update when fresh quarterly figures arrive.

Core definitions and assumptions

Handle (H): total wagering volume during the period.
Hold rate (r): the operator's gross win as a percent of handle (typically 5%–10% for sportsbooks; higher for proprietary markets).
Net revenue (NR): gross win less promotions and partner fees.
Operator margin (m): NR as a percentage of handle after marketing and promos (range 3%–12%, varies by maturity and promotional intensity).
Payment take-rate (p): incremental percentage of payment volume that processors capture (expressed in basis points: 10–50 bps typical for card rails; wallets/instant payouts can be higher).
Ad spend lift (a): sportsbook incremental marketing spend diverted to media partners (as a percent change vs. baseline).

Three-statement scenarios (conservative / base / aggressive)

Use these formulas to estimate incremental revenue (ΔRev) for each player type. I present example percentages below; plug in real handle and spend figures when available.

Operator (sportsbook) incremental net revenue

ΔNR_operator = Baseline_Handle × ΔHandle% × Operator_Hold_Rate × (1 − Promo_Intensity)

Example assumptions:

Baseline quarterly handle: use company filings — substitute your number.
ΔHandle%: Conservative +10%, Base +25%, Aggressive +40% (playoffs + marquee matchups).
Operator hold rate: 6% (conservative) to 9% (aggressive for favorable lines).
Promo intensity: 25%–40% of gross win eaten by bonuses and marketing for customer acquisition.

Illustrative math (normalized baseline handle = $1B for easy scaling):

Conservative: ΔNR = $1B × 10% × 6% × (1 − 30%) = $4.2M
Base: ΔNR = $1B × 25% × 7% × (1 − 30%) = $17.5M
Aggressive: ΔNR = $1B × 40% × 9% × (1 − 25%) = $27M

Scale these results by actual company handle to estimate dollars. For a scale operator with $5B baseline quarterly handle, multiply each result by 5.

Payment processor incremental revenue

ΔRev_processor = Baseline_Handle × ΔHandle% × Payment_Take_Rate

Example (payment take-rate = 0.25% = 25 bps typical for combined card + service volumes; wallets may be higher):

For the same $1B baseline handle and ΔHandle +25%: ΔRev = $1B × 25% × 0.25% = $625k
For a $5B operator with +25% handle: ΔRev = $5B × 25% × 0.25% = $3.125M

Processors also earn fees on faster payouts and value-added services (fraud, KYC) which can add incremental tens to hundreds of basis points depending on client mix.

Ad & media partner incremental revenue

ΔRev_media ≈ Baseline_Ad_Spend × Ad_Spend_Lift%

Example: If sportsbooks traditionally spend $200M quarterly across channels and increase spend 30% into playoffs, ΔRev ≈ $60M spread across TV (large share), digital search/social and CTV programmatic channels.

Applying the model — practical examples for investors

Below are two short, concrete applications of the model to help size exposure.

Example A — DraftKings (DKNG): short-term uplift sizing

Assume DraftKings quarterly handle = $6B (example for modeling; replace with actual). Use base-case uplift +25%, operator hold 7%, promo intensity 30%.

ΔNR = $6B × 25% × 7% × 70% = $73.5M incremental net revenue for the playoff quarter.
Incremental EBITDA impact depends on marginal costs; for a high-growth operator, incremental revenue largely flows to the pre-tax line once fixed costs are covered — estimate 40–60% flows to adjusted EBITDA in the short run = ~$29–44M.

Investor takeaways: the incremental quarterly impact is meaningful, but short-lived. Look for signs that player retention and reactivation lift LTV beyond the playoff quarter.

Example B — Visa/Mastercard: payment rails exposure

Assume $6B baseline handle, +25% uplift, processor take-rate 0.20%:

ΔRev = $6B × 25% × 0.20% = $3M incremental revenue for the quarter.
This is modest vs. Visa/Mastercard’s full business, but sequential quarterly growth and cross-sell to value-added services make the playoffs an important recurring seasonal bump.

Operator margins, user acquisition and monetization — what to monitor now

Playoff wins look great on top line; the margin story is the investor story. Track these metrics closely during earnings and real-time updates:

Handle growth vs. promotional spend: a large handle increase accompanied by a higher promo ratio can mute net revenue uplifts.
Hold rate shifts: better hold (favorable lines) materially increases gross win. Watch sharp changes which may indicate risk management tightening.
CPA & LTV: low CPA during playoffs is attractive, but only if retention keeps LTV above acquisition cost.
In-game/prop bet mix: higher share of in-play bets usually increases NRPU and engagement metrics.
Payout speed & chargebacks: payment friction reduces churn but increases operational costs; higher chargebacks are a red flag for fraud.

Short-term catalysts to trade and how to set alerts

Use these catalysts to set event-based trades or hedges:

Game schedule & matchups: local-market teams increase regional operator volumes. Set geo-specific watchlists.
Promotional push announcements: ticker moves often follow aggressive bonus programs and advertising campaigns; monitor PR and ad buys (TV/CTV disclosures and Nielsen/AdIntel data where available) and use research tools to track spend.
Regulatory approvals: late-2025/early-2026 state regulatory openings or rulings can create multi-quarter tailwinds; watch policy updates.
Partnership deals: new media rights, sponsorships or payment integration deals are scalable short-term catalysts — e.g., instant-payout partnerships with wallet providers.

Risks — what can overturn optimistic scenarios

Regulatory pushback: state or federal restrictions (advertising curbs, deposit restrictions) can materially compress margins.
Promotional wars: aggressive bonusing to win share can leave little incremental EBITDA.
Payment friction and chargebacks: disputes and higher fraud during spikes can eat processor margins and operator cash flow.
Match unpredictability: blowouts reduce in-game betting; tightly contested marquee matchups maximize it. Match-specific variance is high.

Actionable strategies for investors

Event-driven trades: buy on pre-playoff weakness when handle metrics show conservative promotional spending; sell or hedge if managers announce aggressive bonus programs that will dilute margin.
Pairs trade: long operators with strong retention metrics (DKNG/FLTR) and short smaller operators with outsized CPA if you expect promotional noise to compress margins.
Payment exposure: for lower-volatility exposure to wagering growth, consider payment processors (V/MA/PYPL) which gain from volume spikes without operator-level promotional risk.
Media ad play: buy selective media names (DIS, FOXA) ahead of playoff ad-buy windows; programmatic plays (TTD, ROKU) are attractive if CTV share continues to climb in 2026.
Options and earnings calendar: use short-dated calls ahead of earnings only if you model a clear incremental revenue beat tied to playoffs; otherwise prefer outright equities or covered calls.

Monitoring checklist for real-time decision-making

Daily handle updates from state regulators (when released) and operator play-by-play disclosures.
Hold rate commentary in operator post-game reports and earnings calls.
Marketing spend changes visible via ad-tracking services and Nielsen/Pathmatics snapshots.
Payment volume trends in processor transaction disclosures or investor relation slides.
KPIs: DAU/MAU, new deposits, reactivation rates, churn, CPA and NRPU.

2026-specific developments to factor into models

Late 2025 and early 2026 brought several structural shifts that matter for investors:

In-game betting adoption: continuing UI improvements and league data partnerships in 2025 increased in-play market depth in 2026 — boosting NRPU for platforms with best-in-class latency and pricing.
More CTV ad inventory: streaming sports viewership rose in late 2025, making CTV a larger share of sportsbook ad budgets; expect programmatic winners to capture more ad dollars.
Payment innovation: instant payout rails and wallet integrations expanded in key states, improving retention but increasing service revenue for wallet/processor partners.
Regulatory nuance: several states refined advertising rules and deposit restrictions in late 2025 — compressing some promotional levers but creating a more stable long-term market for operators who pivot quickly.

Final takeaways — who to watch and how to position

Short version: scale and product depth win the playoffs. Large operators (DKNG, FanDuel/Flutter, MGM/Caesars) with low marginal acquisition cost and mature retention will extract the most incremental EBITDA. Payment rails benefit from volume bumps but require many customers to meaningfully move their top-line numbers. Ad platforms gain from reallocated sportsbook budgets — particularly in CTV and programmatic.

Quick buy/monitor list

Buy/monitor: DKNG, FLTR (FanDuel exposure), MGM, CZR (operator exposure).
Defensive play: V, MA, PYPL, NVEI, GPN (payment exposure).
Ad exposure: DIS, FOXA, GOOGL, META, TTD, ROKU (media & programmatic).

Actionable next steps

Download operator quarterly filings and pull baseline handle and marketing spend figures into the model templates above.
Set alerts for promotional announcements, major matchup schedules, and state regulatory filings.
Scale position sizes based on modeled incremental EBITDA and the expected duration of user retention post-playoffs.
Hedge headline risk around regulatory actions with offsetting short positions or options if necessary.

“Playoffs are a fast-moving earnings preview — treat them like an earnings event: model conservatively, watch promotions, and trade the KPIs, not headlines.”

Call-to-action

If you want the model template used in this article pre-populated with operator baseline figures and a live-watchlist for handle and ad-spend signals, subscribe to our Sports Betting Markets briefing. Get daily KPI alerts, scenario spreadsheets, and analyst trade ideas timed to playoff schedules and regulatory updates.

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